Today’s five page dissertation quota covered a series of reports published by the Net Evaluation Subcommittee, an Eisenhower era arm of the National Security Council. Here’s a representative sample from my text about the 1959 report:
“The 1959 NESC report (the last thus far declassified) examined a 1962 war in which the US received 48 hours of warning before a Soviet attack. Despite this preparation time, the panel estimated that SAC would lose 85 of its 90 bases, 1200 of 1700 bombers, all missiles, and 85% of its manpower. The Soviet attack would damage thirty percent of American homes, set fire to over 150,000 square miles of land (occupied by 28% of the population), and spew lethal radiation over half the nation. Out of a pre-attack population of 185.5 million, 12.5 million would be killed outright and the number of dead would rise to 60.6 million with an additional 6 million sick and injured. Thirteen percent of industry would be destroyed outright and 22 percent unavailable for up to a year due to damage or radiation. A major difference from the no-notice attacks previously posited is that the federal government was expected to survive largely intact due to the two day warning period.[i]
[i] “1959 Report of the Net Evaluation Subcommittee,” ca. Nov 1959; Folder – 1959 Report of the Net Evaluation Subcommittee; Box A04-12; Intelligence Files; US National Security Council Presidential Records; Dwight D. Eisenhower Library, Abilene, Kansas, p. 8-10.”
Reading reports like this is particularly enlightening in light of the war on terror. The greatest fear we’re used to hearing about is a terrorist with an atomic weapon. That’s the “ultimate nightmare”. Yet, looked at from the security situation of the 1950s, such a threat would be nearly trivial. Yes, I realize the two are not directly comparable — the Soviets were rational, deterrable, and so forth — but that doesn’t change the nightmare scenarios. Put the two nightmares side-by-side, suitcase nuke in Manhattan and Khrushchev-era Soviet attack. When we have to think about the unthinkable (to use Herman Kahn’s phrase), which one is the best of the bad choices? And what does that mean about our reaction today to the current threat?
Food for thought.
[Of course, I’m posing these questions to my hypothetical reader, who according to my blog stats, doesn’t actually exist. Sigh.]
After The Near Life Experience 